{
\def\sym#1{\ifmmode^{#1}\else\(^{#1}\)\fi}
\begin{longtable}{l*{8}{c}}
\caption*{Table A16: Full Specification for Table A6, Real Durable Goods Spending vs. Year-Ahead Expectations, Mortgagor Sample, GEE estimation}\\
\toprule\endfirsthead\midrule\endhead\midrule\endfoot\endlastfoot
                                             &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(1)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(2)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(3)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(4)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(5)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(6)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(7)}         &\multicolumn{1}{c}{(8)}         \\
\midrule
Inflation Expectation                        &       0.571\sym{***}&       0.688\sym{***}&       0.448\sym{**} &       0.555\sym{***}&       0.570\sym{***}&       0.606\sym{***}&       0.541\sym{***}&       0.529\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.183)         &     (0.182)         &     (0.176)         &     (0.189)         &     (0.183)         &     (0.181)         &     (0.179)         &     (0.170)         \\
Inflation Uncertainty                        &       0.087         &       0.048         &       0.165         &       0.085         &       0.088         &       0.113         &       0.131         &       0.034         \\
                                             &     (0.097)         &     (0.095)         &     (0.107)         &     (0.099)         &     (0.097)         &     (0.131)         &     (0.105)         &     (0.086)         \\
Mortgage Balance (Log)                       &       0.376         &       0.548\sym{*}  &       0.433         &       0.383         &       0.377         &       0.331         &       0.366         &       0.677\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.236)         &     (0.315)         &     (0.293)         &     (0.237)         &     (0.237)         &     (0.233)         &     (0.243)         &     (0.253)         \\
Household Income (Log)                       &      -1.516         &      -0.300         &      -1.693\sym{*}  &      -1.501         &      -1.515         &      -1.992\sym{*}  &      -1.498         &      -1.511         \\
                                             &     (1.213)         &     (1.196)         &     (1.004)         &     (1.203)         &     (1.213)         &     (1.129)         &     (1.140)         &     (1.113)         \\
Monthly Payments (Log)                       &      -0.779\sym{***}&      -0.718\sym{***}&      -0.805\sym{***}&      -0.787\sym{***}&      -0.778\sym{***}&      -0.882\sym{***}&      -0.790\sym{***}&      -0.685\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.203)         &     (0.205)         &     (0.182)         &     (0.205)         &     (0.203)         &     (0.205)         &     (0.209)         &     (0.195)         \\
Expects Interest Rate Increase                              &       0.394         &       0.472         &       0.507\sym{*}  &       0.398         &       0.393         &       0.317         &       0.427         &       0.308         \\
                                             &     (0.306)         &     (0.288)         &     (0.295)         &     (0.307)         &     (0.306)         &     (0.327)         &     (0.305)         &     (0.309)         \\
Expects Interest Rate Decrease                              &      -0.102         &      -0.018         &      -0.058         &      -0.134         &      -0.103         &      -0.147         &      -0.160         &       0.089         \\
                                             &     (0.485)         &     (0.479)         &     (0.456)         &     (0.500)         &     (0.485)         &     (0.497)         &     (0.505)         &     (0.481)         \\
Real Wage Expectation                        &       0.100         &       0.073         &       0.083         &       0.099         &       0.100         &       0.095         &       0.100         &       0.063         \\
                                             &     (0.064)         &     (0.063)         &     (0.057)         &     (0.063)         &     (0.064)         &     (0.058)         &     (0.062)         &     (0.047)         \\
Wage Uncertainty                             &       0.084         &       0.106\sym{**} &       0.051         &       0.083         &       0.084         &       0.071         &       0.087         &       0.177\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.058)         &     (0.050)         &     (0.052)         &     (0.057)         &     (0.058)         &     (0.061)         &     (0.058)         &     (0.056)         \\
Age                                          &       0.036\sym{*}  &       0.030         &       0.051\sym{**} &       0.035\sym{*}  &       0.036\sym{*}  &       0.039\sym{*}  &       0.040\sym{**} &       0.030         \\
                                             &     (0.019)         &     (0.023)         &     (0.022)         &     (0.020)         &     (0.019)         &     (0.021)         &     (0.019)         &     (0.019)         \\
Non-White                                  &       0.277         &       0.212         &       0.295         &       0.271         &       0.280         &       0.769\sym{*}  &       0.231         &      -0.002         \\
                                             &     (0.398)         &     (0.390)         &     (0.406)         &     (0.404)         &     (0.400)         &     (0.413)         &     (0.415)         &     (0.463)         \\
Female                                     &       0.308         &       0.396         &       0.050         &       0.263         &       0.308         &       0.135         &       0.380         &       0.201         \\
                                             &     (0.248)         &     (0.244)         &     (0.276)         &     (0.311)         &     (0.248)         &     (0.195)         &     (0.275)         &     (0.260)         \\
Retired                                    &      -0.627\sym{**} &      -0.302         &      -0.897\sym{**} &      -0.646\sym{**} &      -0.626\sym{**} &      -0.717\sym{**} &      -0.746\sym{**} &      -0.668\sym{**} \\
                                             &     (0.306)         &     (0.419)         &     (0.350)         &     (0.311)         &     (0.306)         &     (0.337)         &     (0.314)         &     (0.308)         \\
House Price Expectation                      &      -0.017         &      -0.023         &      -0.015         &      -0.017         &      -0.017         &      -0.028         &      -0.018         &      -0.001         \\
                                             &     (0.024)         &     (0.021)         &     (0.021)         &     (0.024)         &     (0.024)         &     (0.025)         &     (0.023)         &     (0.025)         \\
Expects Unemployment Increase                                  &      -1.225\sym{**} &      -1.508\sym{**} &      -1.215\sym{**} &      -1.305\sym{***}&      -1.224\sym{**} &      -0.885         &      -1.195\sym{**} &      -1.525\sym{**} \\
                                             &     (0.586)         &     (0.675)         &     (0.579)         &     (0.487)         &     (0.586)         &     (0.696)         &     (0.551)         &     (0.612)         \\
Expects Unemployment Decrease                                  &      -0.129         &      -0.268         &      -0.216         &      -0.028         &      -0.129         &      -0.075         &      -0.122         &      -0.143         \\
                                             &     (0.274)         &     (0.280)         &     (0.246)         &     (0.319)         &     (0.275)         &     (0.351)         &     (0.260)         &     (0.275)         \\
Mean Inflation Expectation                   &      -0.438\sym{***}&      -0.398\sym{***}&      -0.360\sym{***}&      -0.427\sym{***}&      -0.436\sym{***}&      -0.314\sym{**} &      -0.448\sym{***}&      -0.323\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.156)         &     (0.136)         &     (0.138)         &     (0.154)         &     (0.156)         &     (0.153)         &     (0.157)         &     (0.123)         \\
Mean Inflation Uncertainty                   &       0.176\sym{*}  &       0.185\sym{*}  &       0.374\sym{***}&       0.175\sym{*}  &       0.175\sym{*}  &       0.121         &       0.129         &       0.278\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.103)         &     (0.108)         &     (0.107)         &     (0.102)         &     (0.103)         &     (0.137)         &     (0.114)         &     (0.105)         \\
Mean Log Mortgage Balance                    &      -0.249         &      -0.393         &      -0.256         &      -0.237         &      -0.250         &      -0.077         &      -0.199         &      -0.505         \\
                                             &     (0.314)         &     (0.386)         &     (0.361)         &     (0.316)         &     (0.315)         &     (0.268)         &     (0.352)         &     (0.322)         \\
Mean Log Household Income                    &       2.431\sym{*}  &       1.389         &       2.216\sym{**} &       2.387\sym{*}  &       2.429\sym{*}  &       3.036\sym{***}&       2.352\sym{*}  &       2.219\sym{*}  \\
                                             &     (1.311)         &     (1.233)         &     (1.129)         &     (1.279)         &     (1.311)         &     (1.167)         &     (1.258)         &     (1.220)         \\
Mean Log Monthly Payments                    &       1.027\sym{***}&       0.855\sym{**} &       1.222\sym{***}&       1.050\sym{***}&       1.025\sym{***}&       1.111\sym{***}&       1.073\sym{***}&       1.034\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.355)         &     (0.344)         &     (0.391)         &     (0.367)         &     (0.355)         &     (0.346)         &     (0.367)         &     (0.351)         \\
Mean Expects Interest Rate Increase          &       0.165         &       0.172         &      -0.077         &       0.194         &       0.163         &      -0.150         &       0.097         &       0.030         \\
                                             &     (0.531)         &     (0.475)         &     (0.552)         &     (0.520)         &     (0.534)         &     (0.484)         &     (0.541)         &     (0.570)         \\
Mean Expects Interest Rate Decrease          &       0.000         &      -0.342         &       0.059         &       0.131         &      -0.001         &      -0.267         &       0.149         &       0.191         \\
                                             &     (0.637)         &     (0.664)         &     (0.659)         &     (0.717)         &     (0.638)         &     (0.605)         &     (0.603)         &     (0.736)         \\
Mean Real Wage Expectation                   &      -0.061         &      -0.023         &      -0.048         &      -0.061         &      -0.061         &       0.051         &      -0.059         &       0.009         \\
                                             &     (0.083)         &     (0.084)         &     (0.075)         &     (0.082)         &     (0.083)         &     (0.086)         &     (0.080)         &     (0.064)         \\
Mean Wage Uncertainty                        &      -0.478\sym{***}&      -0.508\sym{***}&      -0.476\sym{***}&      -0.462\sym{***}&      -0.478\sym{***}&      -0.508\sym{***}&      -0.512\sym{***}&      -0.564\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.133)         &     (0.108)         &     (0.120)         &     (0.131)         &     (0.133)         &     (0.144)         &     (0.135)         &     (0.125)         \\
Mean House Price Expectation                 &       0.117\sym{***}&       0.145\sym{***}&       0.086\sym{**} &       0.113\sym{***}&       0.117\sym{***}&       0.135\sym{***}&       0.122\sym{***}&       0.116\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.040)         &     (0.040)         &     (0.038)         &     (0.040)         &     (0.040)         &     (0.041)         &     (0.039)         &     (0.037)         \\
Mean Expects Unemployment Increase           &       0.756         &       0.943\sym{*}  &       0.374         &       0.762         &       0.755         &       1.465\sym{**} &       0.803\sym{*}  &       1.188\sym{**} \\
                                             &     (0.474)         &     (0.537)         &     (0.515)         &     (0.505)         &     (0.474)         &     (0.650)         &     (0.441)         &     (0.524)         \\
Mean Expects Unemployment Decrease           &      -0.284         &      -0.260         &      -0.345         &      -0.315         &      -0.284         &      -0.284         &      -0.395         &      -0.252         \\
                                             &     (0.487)         &     (0.490)         &     (0.450)         &     (0.486)         &     (0.487)         &     (0.523)         &     (0.487)         &     (0.510)         \\
No College                                 &       0.004         &       0.193         &       0.522         &       0.073         &       0.006         &      -0.128         &      -0.183         &       0.016         \\
                                             &     (0.473)         &     (0.497)         &     (0.597)         &     (0.535)         &     (0.474)         &     (0.487)         &     (0.524)         &     (0.490)         \\
No College $\times$ Inflation Expectation  &      -0.271\sym{**} &      -0.326\sym{**} &      -0.188         &      -0.269\sym{*}  &      -0.270\sym{**} &      -0.278\sym{**} &      -0.250\sym{**} &      -0.218         \\
                                             &     (0.131)         &     (0.153)         &     (0.192)         &     (0.138)         &     (0.131)         &     (0.140)         &     (0.127)         &     (0.151)         \\
No College $\times$ Inflation Uncertainty  &       0.016         &       0.062         &      -0.126         &       0.004         &       0.016         &      -0.025         &       0.145         &      -0.010         \\
                                             &     (0.150)         &     (0.147)         &     (0.206)         &     (0.167)         &     (0.150)         &     (0.174)         &     (0.198)         &     (0.159)         \\
Mean Log Mortgage Balance $\times$ Inflation Expectation&       0.160\sym{***}&       0.156\sym{***}&       0.134\sym{**} &       0.150\sym{***}&       0.160\sym{***}&       0.115\sym{**} &       0.160\sym{***}&       0.159\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (0.055)         &     (0.057)         &     (0.052)         &     (0.055)         &     (0.055)         &     (0.052)         &     (0.055)         &     (0.055)         \\
Mean Log Household Income $\times$ Inflation Expectation&      -0.118         &      -0.023         &      -0.104         &      -0.120         &      -0.117         &      -0.007         &      -0.159         &      -0.044         \\
                                             &     (0.103)         &     (0.112)         &     (0.083)         &     (0.106)         &     (0.103)         &     (0.111)         &     (0.099)         &     (0.105)         \\
Mean Log Monthly Payments $\times$ Inflation Expectation&      -0.130         &      -0.230\sym{**} &      -0.102         &      -0.121         &      -0.130         &      -0.190\sym{*}  &      -0.116         &      -0.115         \\
                                             &     (0.094)         &     (0.097)         &     (0.102)         &     (0.099)         &     (0.094)         &     (0.106)         &     (0.094)         &     (0.095)         \\
Regional Gas Price Inflation                 &                     &       0.141\sym{***}&                     &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &     (0.039)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
Lagged Inflation Expectation                 &                     &                     &       0.004         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.041)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Lagged Inflation Expectation&                     &                     &       0.129         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.165)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
Lagged Inflation Uncertainty                 &                     &                     &      -0.344\sym{***}&                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.082)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Lagged Inflation Uncertainty&                     &                     &       0.304\sym{*}  &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &     (0.173)         &                     &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Expects Unemployment Increase            &                     &                     &                     &       0.147         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &                     &     (0.772)         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
No College $\times$ Expects Unemployment Decrease            &                     &                     &                     &      -0.275         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
                                             &                     &                     &                     &     (0.533)         &                     &                     &                     &                     \\
Constant                                     &       3.341\sym{***}&       2.875         &       2.039         &       3.323\sym{**} &       3.350\sym{***}&       3.417\sym{***}&       3.110\sym{**} &       3.870\sym{***}\\
                                             &     (1.288)         &     (1.810)         &     (1.507)         &     (1.306)         &     (1.287)         &     (1.243)         &     (1.331)         &     (1.329)         \\
\midrule
Correlated Random Effects                    &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         &         Yes         \\
Chi$^2$                                      &     5094.23         &    18938.88         &     9967.90         &     6067.31         &     5114.90         &    17802.12         &     5830.05         &     7926.80         \\
P Value                                      &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         &        0.00         \\
Sample Size                                  &         671         &         671         &         671         &         671         &         666         &         600         &         665         &         622         \\
\bottomrule \caption*{\normalsize \doublespacing Standard errors in parentheses. \\ \textit{Note:} Each column includes time fixed effects. All means refer to within-subject means. Model (1) is unaltered. Model (2) includes gas price inflation and regional controls. Regional controls are omitted. Model (3) includes the lagged inflation expectation and lagged inflation uncertainty and their interactions with the no college indicator. Model (4) includes the interactions of the unemployment expectations indicators with the no college indicator. Model (5) restricts to the overlap sample between the durables and nondurables samples. Model (6) restricts to households in the durables mortgagor sample with more than 5 observations. Model (7) excludes months with outlier median inflation expectations: June 2010, March 2011, September 2011, February 2012. Model (8) excludes observations from 2009, in which the durable sample's spending patterns were most different from the CES. Robust standard errors are clustered at the level of the individual respondent. \sym{*} \(p<0.10\), \sym{**} \(p<0.05\), \sym{***} \(p<0.01\) }
\end{longtable}
}
